Labor Market Trends
6 Threads
China's annual migrant worker survey is out, and, as ever, it's a banger. Just a few of the hits: 1. Migrant employment in the construction sector fell by 6.5 million in 2023, the...
The employment-cost index is seen inside the Fed as the highest-quality measure of compensation growth. Q4 data shows the labor market continued to cool. Wages and salaries for p...
Another key ingredient of a sustainably soft landing is falling into place as job openings fall from an originally reported 9.6m in Sep to 8.7m in Oct. As a result, openings/unemp...
Goldilocks jobs report for the *Fed* - Large payrolls/HH survey, secularly low unemployment, hours up, AHE "subdued" and participation rising. Likely overstates gains, but the bas...
The neutral rate of real growth in the US today is around 1.5%, less than half what it was in previous cycles. That means that even what feels like relatively modest growth (a 'sl...
I've been emphasizing the slowdown in private average hourly earnings as a reason I've lowered my outlook for inflation. Some have pointed out there is less of a slowdown in growth...